Recent events offer a timely reminder of an enduring historical truth: Iran does not need to defeat the United States or Israel militarily, it may only need to unsettle the US bond market. What we commonly call “capital markets” are, more precisely, credit markets. And throughout history, credit has shaped strategy, determined state capacity, and ultimately decided the outcome of wars. From the rise and decline of the Spanish Empire to the dominance of Britain, great powers have depended not only on military strength, but on their ability to secure and sustain financing. Today, concerns about rising debt, bond market vigilantism, and geopolitical fragmentation have led some to question the durability of Pax Americana. In an increasingly bipolar world, is this concern overstated, or are we witnessing the early signs of a transition?

*David Marks is a senior advisor with the investment bank Alantra in London with has a deep experience of debt capital markets (DCM). He joined Alantra in 2024 after 38 years with JPMorgan where he worked in a variety of roles including origination, syndicate and trading. In terms of leadership roles he ran FIG Syndicate, EMTNs and ECP, moving onto head FIG DCM and co-heading DCM in EMEA. His final role at JPMorgan was Chairman DCM. Outside of the firm he was Deputy Chairman of ICMA (International Capital Markets Association) and served on the Audit and Risk Committee at RUSI. David has a long interest in history and geopolitics which led him to join the leadership team of the DSRB Development Group.